Southern Europe Eats Closest to Planetary Diet Yet Has Highest Diabetes

A new exploratory study in the journal Sustainability asks an awkward question: why does Southern Europe, whose food supply sits closest to the Planetary Health Diet, report the highest adult diabetes prevalence among European regions? Researchers from Italian and Dutch institutions compared food supply data for 62 countries between 2010 and 2023 with temperature records and diabetes figures.

Southern Europe's diabetes prevalence rose from 6.4 percent in 2011 to 9.3 percent in 2024. Western Europe climbed from 5.3 to 6.5 percent and Northern Europe from 4.7 to 6.2 percent, while Eastern Europe fell from 7.3 to about 6 percent. In Italy, rising temperatures and diabetes tracked together, with a correlation of 0.6 across only eleven years.

The authors stress that an ecological study cannot prove causation. Food supply is not what individuals actually eat, there was no adjustment for age, obesity or physical activity, and whole grains could not be separated from refined grains. The findings are best read as a prompt for further research rather than dietary advice.